What a lottery percentage is really telling you

A lottery percentage looks like the most honest number on a permit page. It is a real figure, usually published by the agency itself. But two lotteries can both say “22%” and mean completely different things — and the difference decides whether you should build a trip around it.

Before you trust any rate, ours included, ask it five questions.

1. What is being counted?

Most published rates divide winners by applications. That sounds like “your chance,” but an application is rarely one wish. It is usually a list of dates, sometimes several group sizes or trailheads.

Half Dome shows the gap clearly. In the 2024 preseason lottery, 22% of applications won something. But each individual date choice won only about 1% of the time on weekdays and 0.8% on weekends. Both numbers are Official. They just answer different questions: “did this application win anything?” versus “did I get that Saturday?”

Mount Whitney has the same shape. In 2023, about 7,150 permits went out from about 26,200 applications — roughly 27%. Yet the day-use first choice succeeded only 17% of the time, and overnight about 10%. The headline rate includes people who won their second or fifth choice.

What to do with this: if you are flexible, the application rate is closer to your chance. If there is one date you need, the per-date rate is.

2. What does the average hide?

An annual rate blends every day of the season into one number. The days you want are rarely average.

For Angels Landing, the park has said the overall success rate averaged about 50% over two years. That same average covered holiday dates near 8% and some midweek days at 100%. “Coin flip” is true on average and wrong for a holiday weekend.

Zones and routes split the same way. The Enchantments overall award rate was about 6% in 2023 — and the Core Zone, the one on everyone’s photos, is much harder than that.

What to do with this: assume weekends, holidays, and the famous zone sit well below the headline. Midweek and shoulder season sit above it.

3. What did the winners actually get?

Some lotteries award a trip. Others award a chance to go shopping.

In North Cascades in 2026, about 14% of Early Access applicants were awarded a booking time slot. That is not the chance of getting a specific popular camp — it is the chance of getting to try before the general sale. What you can book in that slot depends on who booked before you. Every Early Access lottery works this way.

What to do with this: for time-slot lotteries, the published rate is the first gate, not the last one. Prepare backup itineraries for the moment your slot opens.

4. Who measured it?

On Hush Canyon, every rate carries a label:

• Official — published by the agency (NPS, BLM, the Forest Service, a Recreation.gov notice). We cite the source.
• Estimate — useful context that is not a cell from an official results table. For example, the Middle Fork of the Salmon shows about 2% for 2025, worked out from the Forest Service’s state-by-state statistics rather than printed as one number.
• No rate at all — when no agency figure exists, we leave it blank rather than guess. First-come releases and timed entry don’t have odds; they have speed.

Numbers passed around forums and videos usually lose this label. A rate with no year and no source is a rumor with a percent sign.

5. Which year is it from?

Agencies publish results late, and not every year. A rate from two or three seasons ago is still useful, but ask what has changed since:

• A new lottery design, or a new daily or day-before lottery.
• A change in group size limits or quota.
• A viral year — a film, a trend — that flooded applications.

Any of these can break the comparison between last year and this one.

Turning a rate into a plan

Odds are best used to decide how many chances to take, not to predict one draw. Two pieces of simple math help.

Several lotteries in one year

Two independent lotteries at 20% each give you about a 36% chance of winning at least one. Three give you about 49%. This is why a short portfolio beats one dream application.

The same lottery over several years

At 10% a year, five years of applying gives you about a 41% chance of at least one win. At 2% a year, ten years gives you about 18%. Some trips are a decade-long hobby, and it helps to know that before year one. Weighted lotteries change this math in your favor over time — here is how those work.

Both calculations assume the odds stay the same, which they rarely do. Treat them as a sense of scale, not a promise.

Three mistakes the numbers invite

• Padding an application with dates you can’t use. It raises your “chance of winning something” and your chance of winning something you will cancel.
• Sending extra applications to beat the odds. Many lotteries allow one application per person; duplicates can void every entry and bring a ban for years.
• Skipping a lottery because the rate is low. A 6% lottery that costs a small fee and ten minutes is often worth entering — as long as the trip plan does not depend on it.

Every rate we publish sits on its place page, with its label, year, and source. The place page guide explains where to find them.

Evergreen field note — the example rates come from agency data for the years shown. New results replace them on each place page, not here.